Advance reservations in mountain communities for this winter are down 9 percent
 By TANYA CANINO
 SPECIAL TO THE DAILY
  As the stock markets slipped along their rollercoaster track this week, officials at a Mountain Travel Symposium warned desti­nation resort and tourism indus­try professionals of the volatility of today’s travel market.
  “I’m looking through the lens of the latest on the Dow dropping 530 odd points since 10 a.m.,” said Peter Yesawich, chairman and CEO of the Ypartnership, a travel, leisure and entertainment marketing firm, as he began a web workshop on Wednesday. “That is the lens that consumers are looking through to make win­ter ski vacations in ‘09.”
  Ralf Garrison, owner and part­ner of Mountain Travel Sympo­sium, opened the workshop with the sobering fact that advance reservations for this winter are down 9 percent from last year at this time.
  “The storm clouds are a comin’,” Garrison said, before introducing Yesawich, whose company has been analyzing emerging travel habits, prefer­ences and intentions of Ameri­cans for 17 years.
  Yesawich likened the volatility of the travel market to the stock market’s “Triple Witching Hour,” the last hour of the stock market trading session on the third Fri­day of each quarter. That is tradi­tionally the time in which three kinds of securities expire, thus increasing the volatility of prices of related securities.
  For the travel industry, those three volatile influences are con­sumer anxiety, demographics and technology, Yesawich said.
 Consumer Anxiety
  As the economy’s capricious­ness prevails, the top reason why travelers take fewer trips has switched from “couldn’t get away from the job” to “economic condi­tions,” Yesawich said. And, as Americans switch from “using their home (equity) as an ATM machine” to a “pay as you go” mentality, they will be taking fewer and shorter vaca­tions, he said.
  Mountain resorts need to dis­card the myth that their affluent customers are not affected by the economy, he said. A survey of the top 8 percent of households in net worth and income showed that in 2008, 78 percent were looking for the best prices, compared to 67 per­cent in 2004.
  “Even the most affluent travel­ers are going to be far more value conscious in the years ahead,” Yesawich said.
  The affluent travelers are the ones most affected by the time squeeze as well, with the average work week at 48 hours, and the advent of e-mail increasing the work day by an hour, he said. In 2008, 53 percent of active travel­ers say they will take weekend vacations of less than four days, 28 percent will take more than five days of vaca­tion, and 19 per­cent will take vacations on weekdays. This means that travelers will be looking for resorts within a four- to six-hour travel radius. This is especially important considering 100 of the 600 airports in America are expect­ed to lose commercial air service in the next year, he said.
  “This is a critical issue for many mountain resorts,” he said, adding that resorts need to be looking at the market potential of their “backyards.”
 Technology
  The Internet has created a trav­el mindset that puts price and value above name brands and resort loyalty.
  Fifty-nine percent of active trav­elers (American households which take at least one overnight trip and stay in a commercial lodging) go to the Internet first to begin planning their vacations. However, in 2008, Ypartnership identified a trend which indicated that statistic might be leveling off. It is down from 66 percent in 2007, with the reason being the value of time.
  “People have begun to place a higher value on the time it takes to pick through six or seven websites versus the $35 fee for a travel agent to do that,” Yesawich said.
  Yesawich predicts that online reservations are going to level off, as this technology matures. At the same time, meta-search websites, such as kayak.com, are growing because those sites search for the best fares regardless of brands.
  “What matters most in airfare is the price,” he said, adding that consumers do not care about brand names anymore.
  They also want to visit new places: Some 66 percent of active travelers want to visit someplace they have never been before.
  “A marketing director of a mountain resort when they think about this should get nervous,” Yesawich said, adding that the overall ski and snowboarding mar­ket is not growing.
  Yesawich offered a couple of clues for mountain tourism offi­cials.
  “This should encourage people in the mountain­resort business not to just sell a ski vacation, but a winter vacation,” Yesawich said.
  Vacations are also not just about R&R, he said, because more than 70 per­cent of travelers are celebrating a special occasion. Those that are celebrating something tend to stay longer, budget more money and include more people in their travels. This prompted The Dis­ney Company to begin its “What will you celebrate?” promotion for 2009, offering those with a birthday free admission.
 Demographics
  What is greatly going to affect the travel economy in upcoming years is the “wealth-transfer tsuna­mi,” as $41 trillion in private wealth will change hands in the first half of this century, when Baby Boomers leave their inheritances to their children.
  Yesawich expects an increase in real-estate transactions in resort markets due to this wealth transfer. Another demographic that, so far, Yesawich believes mountain resorts have not acknowledged is the changing diversity of America. There are 50 million Americans who do not speak English as their primary language. In the past month, the number of surnames of Garcia and Rodriguez surpassed Wilson in the U.S.
  From 2008 to 2050, the number of white Americans is expected to decrease from 66 percent to 46 percent, while Hispanic Ameri­cans will increase from 15 per­cent to 30 percent.
  “The implications for the mountain-resort business is very clear and that is to cultivate diver­sity,” he said.
 “Even the most affluent travelers are going to be far more value conscious in the years ahead.”
  PETER YESAWICH
 Ypartnership CEO