While high-end pockets like Aspen, Snowmass, Vail Village and Beaver Creek enjoyed strong sales last year, the widespread boomtimes that saw prices peak in 2007 and four mountain counties surge past $1 billion in annual sales seem long gone.

Since the high point of 2007, when Eagle, Pitkin, Summit, Routt, Grand and San Miguel counties saw more than $10 billion in combined residential and commercial sales, real estate activity in the resort-anchored communities of Colorado’s high country has fallen more than 60 percent.

Measured in transactions, the numbers are a bit more encouraging. Total transactions in the five counties excluding Grand rose to 6,200 last year from a low of 4,200 in 2009, but that’s still well below the 2007 level of 10,400. In other words, sales are rebounding but at much lower prices, and some of the growth is coming from bank sales.

Last year was supposed to be the comeback. Several counties saw vibrant sales in January 2011, fueling hope of a turnaround from the 2009-10 stretch that saw the collapse of the mountain real estate market.

But July 2011 deflated any anticipation for recovery with the worst month in a decade. For the rest of the year, high-country real estate buying and selling either fell or stalled, erasing any gains from the first half of the year.

Brokers float a flurry of reasons behind the continued decline in sales: Political squabbling over national debt. Financial pains in Europe and other international markets. Reticent investors and wary lenders.

One segment that’s up in the high-country real estate market is bank sales and foreclosures, following a trend that has mountain-town foreclosures peaking well behind the Front Range. Routt, Pitkin, Summit and Eagle counties saw the number of bank sales double in 2011.

Last year Eagle County logged 293 bank sales, up from 103 in 2010, with most of those found in the downvalley towns of Eagle and Gypsum. Add in the flood of short sales in Eagle and Gypsum, and prices keep falling. The two towns accounted for more than 28 percent of Eagle County’s 1,357 real estate deals last year, but less than 9 percent of its total sales volume. In Gypsum, the median sales price fell 30 percent in 2011, from $260,800 in 2010 to $180,000 last year.

“There’s been a lot of activity with short sales, and that is driving our property values down,” said Gypsum broker Laurie Slaughter with the Slaughter Realty Group.

Slaughter sees more first-time homebuyers entering the market and taking advantage of the low prices, leaving the area’s supply of affordable for-sale homes whittled to a recent low.

“In the $200,000 to $300,000 range, very few properties stay on the market very long,” Slaughter said.

A different type of value hunter is propping up the market in Pitkin County. The county as a whole endured a flat year, but the high-end markets in Aspen and Snowmass Village saw dollar volume climb 15 percent and transactions climb 25 percent. The two tony enclaves saw 16 sales over $10 million in 2011, compared with only 10 in 2010.

“I think high-end buyers realized they could get great value,” said Aspen broker Tim Estin, who writes a quarterly market analysis called the Estin Report. “What was once $30 million was selling for $15 million or $20 million.”

Signs for January 2012 are varied. San Miguel County saw the slowest January in several years, with 24 sales stirring only $9.6 million, compared to January 2011’s 33 sales worth $25.3 million. But Aspen-Snowmass saw a very strong January, with 29 deals worth $98.26 million. That’s up from 20 deals worth $79.48 million in January 2011, a month that floated hope for a rebound after a dismal 2010.

“But back in January 2011, there was just as much positive news as this past January, so while I’m optimistic, things could be derailed just as they were last year,” Estin said.

Jason Blevins: 303-954-1374 or jblevins@denverpost.com
 

Buffett said that’s because he believes purchasing a home with ultra-low mortgage rates and holding it for the long-term has become a better investment than stocks right now.

“Housing will come back, you can be sure of that,” Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders recently.

Buffett forecasts an increase in household formations, as more people who moved in with their parents or family members during the recession look to move out and get their own home soon.

“People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while ‘doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure,” Buffett said.
 
Buffett said the recovery in the housing market could vary quite a bit among local housing markets, however. He did not provide a timeline of when he expected a full housing recovery, admitting that his prediction last year that a housing recovery will take shape within the year turned out to be “dead wrong.”

To view the original article, click here: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2012/02/29/buffett-id-buy-up-couple-hundred-thousand-homes

“What we have here is non-distressed sellers that are holding onto property and waiting for prices to get better, said Chuck Leathers, the broker/owner of Chuck Leathers Real Estate Co. in Frisco. “A lot of these sellers do not have to sell.”

Leathers said prices have not dropped “nearly as much” as they have in much of the west: Costs are down in Summit about 17 percent from the top of the market in 2008, while “there are areas of Arizona where they drop 17 percent per month.”

“The prices have not dropped because they don’t have to,” Leathers said.

He said about 75 percent of Summit’s real estate market are second homes.

“Our market has a lot of variables that are quite different,” said Daniel Webster Johnson, a broker associate at Resort Brokers Real Estate in Breckenridge. “When do you buy a new home in a second market — when things just start to get better, or a few years after?”

Leathers’ recent “Real Estate at a Glance” columns in the Summit Daily indicate the average number of homes sold, average resale price and the average price of single-family homes have all improved since the economy hit, but still aren’t back to early 2000 levels. 2011 ended with 1,288 total sales in Summit, an increase of 8.6 percent over 2010, while average sale prices for existing properties fell by 2.7 percent, a “major improvement” over 2010’s decline of 14 percent.

The average sale price in 2011 for single-family homes was just under $800,000 compared to almost $1 million in 2009, and about $500,000 in 2000. Leathers said that prices “have effectively stopped falling at this point.” An increase of foreclosures would drive prices further down, but there’s not enough right now for that to happen, he said.

Summit County Treasurer Bill Wallace said there are currently 13 foreclosures in the works, compared to 28 at the same time last year.

“If it’s a trend, it’s a nice trend,” Wallace said.

Webster Johnson said he’s not sure prices are at a bottom. At the real estate conferences he attends, it seems there are “consistent increases across the rest of the markets.”

“That makes me think we’re not at a bottom,” he said. “I like to joke that the Realtor community should have a parade down Main Street, Frisco when the prices bottom out.”

According to Leathers, there are a few homes for sale in Dillon Valley at 2005 prices: One-bedrooms at about $80,000 that were listed around $120,000-$130,000 a few years back, and a few single-family homes list for under $300,000, which he said is pretty good for Summit County.

“I do believe prices are at a good value now. Will they go down more? I don’t know,” Webster Johnson said. “Where we’re at in the cycle: it’s a good value.”

The current number of real estate listings in Summit — under 1,700 — is the lowest it has been since 2007.

Lack of sellers, and buyers

In addition to homeowners opting to wait to sell, there is also a lower level of buyers wanting to purchase. But Leathers expects that to change soon: Buyers have been increasing about 10 percent a year for the past two years, he said. Sales last year started out pretty well and would have been better had news of the national debt not caused concern. This year, Leathers says property sales could increase 10-15 percent more over 2011, “if the economy stays OK.”

“It’s all about whether people feel like they have extra money,” he said.

In the first release of CoreLogic’s new MarketPulse newsletter Wednesday, Fleming explained his rationale for such an assessment.

He notes that housing is an industry with long business cycles. Regional housing recessions have typically taken anywhere from three to five years to find their bottom, and Fleming says the national housing recession has behaved similarly in that it has bounced along a bottom for the past two years.

Fleming points out that housing affordability is rising dramatically due to a combination of home price deflation and rock-bottom mortgage rates. In fact, he says, after adjusting for inflation, this has been a “lost decade” for housing as prices are the same as at the beginning of the millennium.

“The time is right in 2012 for prices to begin growing again,” Fleming said, “and housing affordability will put a floor under any further significant declines.”

Fleming says he will be watching the spring and summer buying season closely for positive signs of demand.

He points out that households are paying off their debts and at the same time accessing credit more easily, with some even adding Home Equity Lines of Credit in the third quarter of last year – the first such movement for these second-lien mortgage products since the financial crisis began.

Fleming cites a quarterly survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which shows total household debt continues to decline. At the same time, consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in the latter part of 2011, posting a six-month high in December – an indication that consumers’ confidence in the strength of the economy is growing, according to Fleming.

Most housing statistics basically moved sideways in the latter part of 2011, but Fleming finds several positives in the numbers. Although market indicators are coming off of very low levels, he notes that both existing-home sales and single-family housing starts have begun to increase, homebuilder confidence is improving, and affordability is at an all-time high.

Putting all of these statistics together suggests that while there is a very long way to go, the housing market is likely to sustain these upward movements in 2012, according to Fleming.

“While we cannot say with a high degree of certainty what 2012 has in store for us, indications based on the latter part of 2011 are that both the broad economy and the housing market are moving toward positive growth in 2012,” Fleming said.

He concedes that some impediments do exist, including slower global economic growth, a recession in Europe, and fiscal and political uncertainty in the United States.

But Fleming says when you look at the big picture, “we are bullish on the prospect of improving economic performance in 2012 from 2011.”

Guests are invited to come early and celebrate Breck’s 50th anniversary opening with a cupcake breakfast, featuring FREE 50th Anniversary Cupcakes to the first 1,111 guests starting at 8:30 a.m. on the Ski Hill Grill Plaza at the base of Peak 8. Follow up breakfast with the first turns of the season on Peak 8.  Specific trails and terrain will be announced on Thursday afternoon.  To get the latest terrain updates visit Breckenridge.com, facebook.com/Breckenridge or @breckenridgemtn on Twitter.

Budweiser has also caught Breck’s 50th birthday bug and has created a commemorative
“Breck 50th Anniversary Ale” in honor of Breck’s Anniversary Season.  Join us at the T-Bar to be a part of the cheers and ceremonial tapping of the first keg of the season at 11 a.m., where the celebratory brew can be found all season long.

Breck’s Gold Runner Coaster will also start its winter operations on Friday, and will run 11 a.m. – 4 p.m. daily, weather permitting.

Friday, November 11th
Opening Day Schedule:

8:00 a.m.                                               BreckConnect Gondola Operation Begins
8:30 a.m.                                               Complimentary Cupcake Breakfast to the first 1,111 guests on the Ski Hill Grill Patio
9:00 a.m.                                               First chair of the 2010/11 season!
11:00 a.m.                                             GoldRunner Coaster opens for the season
11:00 a.m.                                             T-Bar opens; ceremonial tapping of first 50th Anniversary Ale keg
1:00-4:00 p.m.                                      The Universally Famous Rocket Surgeons (local Breck band) live in concert at the TBar

Lucerne, Switzerland This picturesque Swiss Alps city is like a model-train set come to life. Medieval-style homes and shops with flower boxes line cobblestoned streets. The wooden 14th-century Chapel Bridge (Kapllbrücke) spans the Reuss River flowing through the town’s crystal-clear Lake Lucerne. And in the backdrop, little red cog railway cars climb the steep Mt. Pilatus. Do: Take the cog railway up to Mt. Pilatus for lunch or for a hike at what feels like the top of the world. There are also high ropes courses, zip-lines, tubing slides, and summer toboggan runs here. Return by train and boat or by gondola and bus to the historic Old Town, a pedestrian-only shopping area where you can stroll narrow, winding streets to the Hermès shop. Splurge at Max Chocolatier, or save by hitting the impressive chocolate aisle at a local grocery store.

Riobamba, Ecuador  Like many cities in the Pacific Ring of Fire, Riobamba lives in the shadow of a sleeping giant. Clouds wisp at the tip of the inactive Chimborazo volcano, Ecuador’s highest point, while native llama, alpaca, and vicuña graze in the protected habitat below. You’ll see why some call Riobamba the Sultan of the Andes when you explore the colonial city center’s cathedrals and museums.
Do: Shop for handicrafts at the Saturday market on the streets northeast of Parque de la Concepción. Try the market’s snow cones (raspados) made from blocks of ice transported from the glacier by mules, a local tradition. Another favorite is the zigzagging Chiva Express train ride up a 45-degree pitch called Devil’s Nose. Latin Trails will take to the train or on an ice-harvest adventure.

Girdwood, Alaska  Next to the state’s largest ski resort, just outside Anchorage, Girdwood was originally called “Glacier City” for the colossal icy peaks that surround it. Calving glaciers thunder into the Prince William Sound, and humpback whales play in nearby Kenai Fjords National Park. Set amid this idyllic valley’s rugged beauty is one of Alaska’s most productive and still active placer gold mines, Crow Creek Mine, where you can pan for gold.
Do: Find adventure and great photo ops year-round on a guided glacier hike or ice-climbing trek. A trip to the top on Alyeska Resort’s aerial tram nets you a splurge-worthy dinner destination: Seven Glaciers Restaurant. The town’s best cinnamon rolls are at The Bake Shop near the base of the ski hill.

Bled, Slovenia Not far from the Austrian border, Bled in the Julien Alps has all the elements of a classic fairy tale: a clifftop castle, frosted peaks, an emerald lake, a church steeple, a wishing bell, and a signature sweet treat. This alpine town even sits at the edge of a dark forest (Triglav National Park) with a waterfall and mountains known for legends of the Zlatorog, the golden-horned chamois that is said to live here.
Do: Hike up to the 1,000-year-old Bled Castle, where you can bottle wine in the cellar, indulge in the herbal gallery’s aroma, or stay for a meal with a view. Visit Bled Island in Bled Lake by rowing a boat or hitching a ride on a local gondola-like pletna, then ring the famous church bell. Don’t miss the town’s signature cream cake (kremna rezina) at Slascicara Smon.

Whistler, British Columbia, Canada Coverage of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic Games introduced the world to this ski town’s stunning beauty and cosmopolitan allure. At the base of Whistler and Blackcomb mountains, icy blue streams gurgle through the pedestrian village. Boutique shops, lively pubs, and restaurant patios open onto great people-watching thoroughfares, where you can take in high fashion and sexy foreign accents in one delicious shot.
Do: Ride the Peak 2 Peak Gondola from Whistler to Blackcomb, or soak in the outdoor hydrotherapy baths at Scandinave Spa. In winter you can try the Sliding Centre’s skeleton and bobsleigh runs—reaching speeds of up to 135 kilometers per hour—or race the luge track from spring through fall. At the Squamish Lil’wat Cultural Centre cafe, sample traditional bannock fry bread and salmon chowder. Hit Zog’s Dogs food cart for cinnamon BeaverTails or bratwurst and poutine (a mix of fries, cheese curds, and gray).

Stowe, Vermont Stowe is the quintessential New England village. In a fertile valley between the Green Mountains’ peaks, this quaint town of 4,500 is a throwback to all things wholesome. The historical Main Street area is home to a general store, a malt shop, and even a mercantile with fresh handmade fudge. Head to the surrounding countryside for a grazing tour of Vermont’s farm treats.
Do: You can stop in for free samples year-round at Laughing Moon Chocolates on Main Street or at Cold Hollow Cider Mill and Ben & Jerry’s in the Waterbury area. Harrison’s Restaurant & Bar, a popular watering hole in a historical Main Street basement, is like the Cheers of Stowe. Browse Stowe Craft & Design for handmade items, including great furniture for mountain retreats.

Wanaka, South Island, New Zealand  This South Island lake town, away from the crowds of its popular Queenstown neighbor, sits in a glacier-carved basin near the edge of Mt. Aspiring National Park’s Southern Alps. Mountains rise out of Lake Wanaka, vineyards drape the hillsides, and tiny islands harbor uninhabited sanctuaries for the flightless buff weka bird. It’s no wonder the laid-back Kiwi vibe has such a stronghold here.
Do: Relax with a local beer and a slice of pizza at Kai Whaka Pai, which has the best view in town. Eco Wanaka boat tours take you to Moa Wahu Island to see the native weka. At Cinema Paradiso you can watch movies in comfy old couches and eat warm homemade cookies during the intermission. Experience the scenery from an open-air Vintage Tigermoth flight with goggles and a leather helmet or on a canyoning trip in a wetsuit, helmet, and booties.

 Taos, New Mexico This Southwestern town, in a high desert valley, is a study in contrasts. Rich blue skies meet an arid countryside dotted with adobe dwellings and the Taos Pueblo village. The Sangre de Cristo Range towers majestically above the desert floor. And the Rio Grande’s whitewater cuts a deep gorge in red sandstone below. Is it any wonder Georgia O’Keeffe, D.H. Lawrence, and countless others have been inspired here?
Do: Find kitschy kachina dolls, baskets, pottery, and other treasures at Robert Cafazzo’s Two Graces Gallery, Curios and Bookstore in Ranchos de Taos. Sip a local specialty—the Buddha Margarita—during Taos Inn’s Adobe Bar happy hour from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. For dinner, don’t miss El Meze, a restaurant that puts a Spanish/Moorish twist on traditional local cuisine.

Gyalthang, Yunnan Province, China Set among Himalayan snowcaps, this ancient rural town near the Tibetan border is a hidden highland utopia. Here in Gyalthang (Jiantang Town), renamed after the fictional land of Shangri-La in 2001, locals live simple, long lives far from the influence of the outside world. Shaggy yaks drag plows through rich soil, and the sound of chanting floats out of Tibetan monasteries. Just outside town, pastures open up to alpine lakes, gorges, and swift rivers fed by mountain snow.
Do: Shop for colorful scarves, blankets, and local handicrafts in Old Town, or stop at Bhuskar’s Kitchen for authentic Tibetan and Indian/Nepalese food. View seekers can climb the local Shika Mountain or take a cable-car ride to the top. Songtsam Retreat leads excursions to Pudacuo National Park, home to 100 endangered species.

Breckenridge, Colorado Gold seekers founded this Victorian mining town in 1859, and many of the original buildings that housed hotels, dance halls, and saloons still stand. The new occupants—quirky boutiques, restaurants, outfitters, and microbreweries—capture Breckenridge’s pioneering spirit and down-to-earth character. It’s an unpretentious Rocky Mountain high 90 miles west of Denver.
Do: Meet local sled dogs in their off-season and hop on a dogcart for a backcountry tour. Check out the whimsical, handmade clothing at Magical Scraps. Try Breckenridge Brewery, the Breckenridge Distillery, or the Blue River Bistro for drinks. For dinner, indulge in locally sourced cuisine in a historical Victorian house at Hearthstone Restaurant. Lucha’s breakfast burritos are legendary.

A majority of agents surveyed say they have baby boomer clients who already own or are looking to own an investment property, including 22 percent of agents who say that at least half of their boomer clients either own or are looking to own investment properties.

The survey also reveals home-buying differences between older and younger members of the boomer generation. About one-third of agents (34 percent) say younger boomers (aged 47-55) are interested in purchasing a second home, compared to 22 percent who report older boomers (ages 56-64) are interested in a second home.

Nearly one-third (31 percent) say that younger boomers are selling their current home and looking for a larger home, compared to 6 percent who report that older boomers are trading up. Slightly more than half of agents say younger boomers are trying to downsize their home compared to 80 percent who say that older boomers are downsizing. Younger baby boomers are more likely to prefer a single-family home than older boomers (82 percent vs. 47 percent).

The data did little, however, to change the view that housing, hobbled by a burst bubble which triggered a major recession, will not help the economy much any time soon.

Sales climbed more than expected, up 7.7 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

“This housing market is still very distressed,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

“We have to get a lot of good news for a meaningful turnaround in the housing market,” he said.

The outlook for housing prices remains grim. A survey by MacroMarkets LLC showed economists expect home prices to rise just 1.1 percent a year through 2015.

That is less than a third of the annual pace clocked in the 13 years that preceded the housing bubble, the survey found. Falling prices can make housing look like a poor investment for many Americans.

A separate report showed applications for mortgages edged up last week on higher refinancing activity, but were held back by a lack of demand for purchases, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

DISTRESSED SALES

Existing home sales have trended lower in 2011 and prices are still weakening. One factor keeping prices low is the high rate of “distressed sales” which include those forced by foreclosures.

Distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of August transactions, up from 29 percent a month earlier.

In an attempt to breathe life into the sector and the struggling wider economy, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would try to lower long-term borrowing costs and bolster housing.

The Fed said it would launch a $400 billion program to weight its balance sheet more heavily toward longer-term securities. It also said it would reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage and housing agency bonds it holds back into the mortgage market, an acknowledgment of just how weak housing remains.

The Fed’s low interest rate policies have helped push 30-year mortgage rates to their lowest since at least 1971, when mortgage finance provider Freddie Mac started tracking them.

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower after the Fed’s announcement, while prices for long-term government debt rose, pushing yields lower.

While the Fed is ramping up its support, some other props for the housing sector are set to fall away. At the end of this month, the size of the loans federal housing agencies can purchase will fall, and next year government-controlled mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will begin to raise fees on the loans they purchase.

NAR economist Jed Smith was nevertheless upbeat that prices could stabilize soon because he said inventories would likely decline over the winter.

“(That) would be very conducive to definitive price stabilization,” he told reporters.

Total housing inventory fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, equivalent to an 8-1/2-month supply, the NAR said.

The NAR said the increase in sales came despite some disruption from Hurricane Irene, which battered much of the East Coast at the end of the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 1.4 percent to a 4.71-million-unit pace. Compared to August 2010, sales were 18.6 percent higher

Denver tied with for the lowest median inventory in April with Oakland, and
has been No. 1 every month since.
 

“Congratulations to Denver,” said Gary Bauer, an independent broker who
conducts whose own analysis of the Denver-area housing market each month, using
Metrolist data.
 

“This is another example showing the resiliency of the Denver market and
another example that all real estate is local, and not national,” Bauer said.
“We have been tied to the national trend for a long time. I think we are now
starting to break out as our own market and not being tied to the national
market as much as the past few years.”
 

The median age of the inventory is not the same as the “average” time on the
market.
Realtor.com calculated the median age of inventory for the month by
calculating the days homes were listed on the site by subtracting their listed
date from the earlier of the listing date or the end of the time month-long time
period.  Then, it took the median of all of the individual days on the site.
This accounts for accounts for properties that were withdrawn from an MLS and
subsequently re-listed. Because median age of inventory in these reports is the
days a listing is displayed on Realtor.com, it may differ from days on market
calculated by the MLS where the listing is posted.
Nationally, the median age of inventory exceeded 120 days in 22 markets.
Twelve of those 22 were in Florida and six were in either North or South
Carolina. Others included:

Savannah (148 days)
Reading (138 days)
Santa Fe (128 days)
Mobile (126 days)
Philadelphia( (120 days)
Knoxville (120 days).
 

Outside of Denver, California markets typically had among the lowest median
age of inventory.

Inventory drying up

Realtor.com also noted that nationally, the inventory of unsold homes on the
market fell by 1.9 percent in August from July, and is down 19 percent from
August 2010. By contrast, Denver’s unsold home inventory of 18,164 at the end of
August was down almost 5 percent from July and was down 23 percent from August
2010. It was the lowest inventory for August in at least 11 years, Bauer noted.
Although it was lower in the 1990s, it is not a fair comparison to today’s
numbers because the population was so much lower, he noted.

“I’m continued to be surprised by how low our inventory is,” Bauer said. “If
you look at the usual suspects, we still have a relatively high unemployment
rate and the economy weighs heavy on each and every one of us.  Basically, I
think what is very near and dear to everyone is the lack of consumer confidence.
Consumer confidence remains very low. And, yes, mortgage rates are very
affordable – basically at historic lows – but a lot of people cannot take
advantage of them because of the stricter due diligence that requires such
strict underwriting by lenders.”

Realtor.com said that, “Lower inventories, combined with generally stable
list prices, can be seen as a positive sign.  However, some markets remain
fragile, particularly those with high unemployment rates and large numbers of
seriously delinquent borrowers.

“While the percent of loans that are 90+ days past due or in foreclosure has
declined in the past year, mortgage delinquencies have increased slightly (23
basis points) between the first and second quarters of 2011. Unless properly
managed, the ‘shadow inventory’ could bog down the market and trigger
deterioration in both list and sold prices.”